Journal Archive | The Alae

Opinion Sep 3, 2026

[US Open 2026] Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: The market is too cheap on Darderi

The model makes Darderi a 67.7% favorite, yet the market prices him at just 56¢. Rested, healthy, and a hard-court Slam quarterfinalist — here's why I back Darderi.

Opinion Sep 2, 2026

[US Open 2026] Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz: Fatigue is a key factor

The model makes Shelton an 83.8% favorite — here's why I'm fading it and backing Hurkacz on fatigue and serve vulnerability.

Analytics Sep 2, 2026

What half-Kelly actually does to a $1,000 tennis bankroll

A 1,000-day Monte Carlo of a half-Kelly staking plan on an AUC 0.73 ATP model — bankroll fan, intraday drawdown, and Kelly-sizing sensitivity.

Archives

[US Open 2026] Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina: The market is too cheap on Darderi

[US Open 2026] Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz: Fatigue is a key factor

What half-Kelly actually does to a $1,000 tennis bankroll